Sam Darnold, NFL quarterback ‘busts’ are balling around the league

Few designations are worse in sports than being pegged as a quarterback bust in the NFL. It’s a stench that is very hard to get rid of completely, and one that very few ever fully shed. Over the last three seasons, we have seen the career resurrections of Geno Smith, Baker Mayfield, and Sam Darnold - all former high draft picks who were once seen as potential franchise-saving quarterbacks, but were eventually scapegoated and banished from the teams that once sought them out to be their saviors.

There is historical precedent. Jim Plunkett was the first overall pick of the New England Patriots in 1971, but never put together a winning season in five seasons in Foxboro. After landing in San Francisco for two seasons that saw him go a combined 11-15, Plunkett went further south in California to the Oakland Raiders, where he would become a legend. The Stanford product led the Raiders to two Super Bowl championships in the 1980 and 1983 seasons.

Tommy Maddox was taken in the first round by the Denver Broncos in 1992 and seen as the heir apparent to John Elway. What happened instead, though, was Maddox went 0-4 as a rookie filling in for Elway, and was out of the NFL following the 1995 season. He found himself in the XFL in 2001 where he won the Most Valuable Player award and led the Los Angeles Xtreme to the XFL Championship. This led to the Pittsburgh Steelers taking notice, and Maddox helped lead the Steelers to the playoffs in 2002.

As the NFL became the pass-heavy league that it is today, though, these stories became fewer and farther between than they already were. First-round picks were given two to three seasons at the very most to show that they were capable of being franchise quarterbacks. And understandably so, if we’re being honest. Teams aren’t going to spend half a decade figuring out if a guy is good or not. If it takes that long, odds are that the quarterback just isn’t the guy.

Until he is. With another team. Which is the other side of this coin as we’ve seen with Mayfield, Darnold, and Smith.

Since taking over as the Seahawks’ starter in 2022, Geno Smith has thrown 56 touchdowns and been a Pro Bowler in each of his first two seasons, and could very well be heading to his third straight if his play continues. Of all quarterbacks to play at least 250 snaps in that span, Smith ranks third in Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE).

Mayfield became the Buccaneers starter in 2023. In his first year in Tampa, the former No. 1 overall pick led the Bucs to an NFC South division title, won a playoff game over the defending NFC Champion Philadelphia Eagles, and took a great Detroit Lions team down to the wire in the divisional round. Mayfield ranks ninth in adjusted Expected Points Added (EPA) per play since the start of 2023 (min. 250 plays). He threw for 4,000 yards and 28 touchdowns in 2023, and is currently on pace for 4,218 yards and 42 touchdowns and is as confident as ever.

His 2018 NFL Draft classmate Sam Darnold is the latest example of a guy finding his stride later in his career. After playing for three teams in six years, Darnold seems to have found the perfect spot in Minnesota. His Vikings are one of two remaining undefeated teams in the NFL, and Darnold has at least two touchdown passes in four of those five victories. His 103.4 passer rating is sixth in the NFL and he is 11th in the league in CPOE - one spot ahead of Patrick Mahomes.

So how does this happen? Darnold’s head coach Kevin O’Connell’s rather simple explanation is the easiest way to decode it.

“I believe organizations fail young quarterbacks before young quarterbacks fail organizations.”

And looking at all three of these quarterbacks, it’s hard to disagree.

Smith was drafted by the New York Jets in 2013. In four years, he went 12-18 as a starter while playing under Rex Ryan and Todd Bowles as his head coaches while Marty Mornhinweg and Chan Gailey as his offensive coordinators; defensive-minded head coaches and over-the-hill OCs who were behind the eight-ball when it came to modern football.

Darnold was also drafted by a bad Jets team that had Todd Bowles as its head coach before hiring Adam Gase in 2019. That lasted all of two seasons before Gase was fired and Darnold was traded to the Carolina Panthers.

Mayfield was drafted into a Browns team that had arguably the worst head coach in history in Hue Jackson, who was fired in the midst of Mayfield’s rookie season. The Browns replaced Jackson with one-and-done Freddie Kitchens before finally hiring Kevin Stefanski, which resulted in Mayfield and Stefanski leading the Browns to the franchise’s first playoff win since its resurrection. Then he got hurt in 2021, the whole Odell Beckham thing happened, and the year ended with Mayfield being scapegoated after a 7-10 season. Mayfield languished on the trade market for months — no one wanted him — before joining Darnold in Carolina.

Overall, it’s amazing how much connective tissue these three have. Smith and Darnold were both drafted by the Jets. Darnold and Mayfield both went to the Panthers in the same offseason. Smith and Mayfield both had a helping hand from now-Panthers head coach Dave Canales, who was the Seahawks’ quarterbacks coach in 2022 and the Buccaneers’ offensive coordinator in 2023. And all three have had Todd Bowles as their head coach. Now, having reached the light at the end of their respective tunnels, all three are leading teams with .500 records or better, in the midst of the NFC playoff race, and playing fantastic in doing so.

So what does this mean? Well, for starters, coaching matters. Once these three found competent offensive minds to be paired with, whether it be as head coach or offensive coordinator, they found success. Dave Canales, Liam Coen, Sean McVay, Kevin O’Connell - all deserve immense credit for the rise of these three quarterbacks. It also means we’re going to see more guys that may have stumbled as early draft picks get more chances. Guys like Daniel Jones, Zach Wilson, Mac Jones may have one of these offensive gurus bring them in as backups initially, but be given opportunities to shine within a system that suits them.

Not every draft class is going to have a Patrick Mahomes or a Josh Allen or a C.J. Stroud. Furthermore, not every team will be in position to, or frankly want to keep drafting quarterbacks and continually restart this process. So maybe they take a flier on a Mac Jones and build their offense around the things he does well without asking him to do too much. Regardless of who goes where and how successful they are, teams and fan bases will all say “Well maybe X will be the next Geno Smith” or “Well you saw what the Vikings did with Sam Darnold.” These three will be the prototype for a pattern that will repeat going forward. And whether or not more teams find similar success is to be determined. But in a world where quarterback play and offensive success is as important as it’s ever been, sometimes you have to think outside the box.